Table 1.

Simulation results for per cent change in the mean global population size of polar bears.

approach for projectionsaduration of three polar bear generations (years)per cent change in mean global population sizeprobability of decline
medianlower 95%CIupper 95%CI≥0%≥30%≥50%≥80%
135−30−35−251.000.560.000.00
141−34−40−291.000.950.000.00
235−4−62500.550.200.060.00
241−4−68560.550.240.080.00
335−43−76−201.000.860.300.01
341−45−79−211.000.880.350.02
  • aApproach 1 assumed a one-to-one proportional relationship between sea ice and abundance. Approaches 2 and 3 estimated global and ecoregion-specific relationships between sea ice and empirical estimates of abundance, respectively. Results from each approach are shown for the mean and 95th percentile of estimated GL.